FlowDesk
Official create/redeem prints once, after the New York close. The hourly column is pressure, not a ticket. The product is the sentence, not the number.
Bid is back
IBIT and FBTC both green for 2–3 sessions, and the 5-day sum flips toward zero or positive.
Distribution
Five-day net worse than about −$500m, and FBTC is also negative.
Stand down
IBIT green, FBTC still red — rotation or inventory, not a clean re-bid.
Absorption
Price up while ETFs redeem. Someone else is buying. Bounce risk is real; do not call it accumulation.
The desk rewrites the insight board every hour, and scans every few minutes for sudden tape: a 0.20% premium crossing, a 2σ volume spike, a 1.2% spot jump, or a new US create/redeem print. Those land as Event cards.
Around 06:00–08:00, yesterday’s US session is settled. Read the insight board first, then IBIT versus FBTC, then the 5-day sum. US cash hours (21:30–04:00) only move the proxy tape.
The Outlook is the wider lens: what the last 30 days did, where price sits now, and a range for the next 30 days and to the end of next quarter. The cone is a range of outcomes, not a call — size to the outer band, not the middle path. It only leans a direction when ETF flows have historically mattered at that horizon, and it grades itself against its own past cones. Use the Desk for the next 1–5 days and the Outlook to know which month you are trading inside.
The desk does not see authorized-participant tickets or 13F holdings. It reads the public create/redeem print and says what it means. The TA chapter is the monthly map those 1–5 day flows sit inside.