Bid
Bid. IBIT and FBTC both creating (+433.0m, headline). Five-day +6m. ETH confirms.
Need a third green day and a 5-day sum at or above zero.
After hours. Settled print is the read. Next event scan in ~5 min — alerts fire on a sudden spot or premium move.
What the tape means
SettledRead
The bid is aligned
Both IBIT and FBTC created shares. Dips are more likely to be absorbed. Keep watching FBTC — it usually turns first when the bid fades.
SettledRead
The week is still net buying
The 5-day sum (+6m) is the regime number. One session cannot overwrite it. Direction for the next 1–5 days follows this sum, not the latest headline print.
SettledRead
Ether confirms the Bitcoin bid
ETHA/FETH are also creating (+143.7m). That is the cleaner risk-on tell.
SettledWatch
Headline-sized print
+433.0m is large enough to move the tape. Still wait for IBIT/FBTC agreement before acting.
LiveWatch
IBIT is trading rich — create pressure
IBIT implied premium is +5.36%. Authorized participants are incentivized to create shares and buy coin. This is live pressure, not a settled flow.
LiveWatch
FBTC is trading rich — create pressure
FBTC implied premium is +5.29%. Authorized participants are incentivized to create shares and buy coin. This is live pressure, not a settled flow.
Bitcoin across four horizons
Full outlookBTC 1D
+433.0m
A headline print (+433.0m). Meaning depends on whether IBIT and FBTC agreed.
IBIT / FBTC
+108.4 / +310.7
Both creating. This is the actual bid.
BTC 5D
+6m
Still bid over five days (+6m). Dips are more likely to be bought.
ETH 1D
+143.7m
Ether is adding (+143.7m). It confirms only if BTC funds agree.
Settled BTC flow · last 10 sessions
Settled daily flow · US$m
| Date | Total | IBIT | FBTC | ETH | ETHA | FETH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | +433.0 | +108.4 | +310.7 | +143.7 | +114.3 | +26.2 |
| 17 Sep 2026 | +159.5 | +183.7 | -16.6 | -39.3 | -42.9 | +1.8 |
| 16 Sep 2026 | -295.9 | -144.1 | -52.7 | -224.1 | -110.0 | -55.6 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | -450.4 | -161.7 | -214.8 | -142.0 | -98.0 | -7.2 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | +159.9 | +134.3 | +53.3 | +121.1 | +80.5 | +8.9 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | -13.2 | -19.2 | 0.0 | +216.4 | +148.8 | +11.4 |
| 10 Sep 2026 | -282.7 | -24.5 | -33.6 | -29.9 | -18.6 | -25.2 |
| 09 Sep 2026 | -120.2 | -19.5 | 0.0 | +34.7 | +9.7 | 0.0 |
| 08 Sep 2026 | -46.6 | +10.7 | -17.1 | -24.3 | 0.0 | +9.9 |
| 04 Sep 2026 | +174.6 | +117.4 | +57.2 | +26.4 | +57.8 | -48.3 |
Hourly proxy · not flow
3-day IBIT+FBTC agreement leads. 5-day sum is the regime. Split tape = stand down.
Farside daily print via public mirror. Hourly layer is price, not create/redeem.
As of 18 Sep 2026. Print size: headline. Official create/redeem is daily after the New York close.