FlowDesk
Bitcoin is up 4.1% on the month in an uptrend with steady institutional buying. Next 30 days: $76.9k–$89.0k is the likely zone and flows give no edge on the next month. Through Q4 2026: $64.9k–$115.2k covers four outcomes in five, and the quarter has been positive in 58% of past years.
Daily closes from Yahoo Finance; settled ETF flows from the public Farside mirror. Rebuilt every 10 minutes.
Past 30 days · 21 Aug – 21 Sep
It bottomed at $75.6k on 15 Sep, then climbed to $81.5k on 21 Sep; the worst peak-to-trough inside the window was −7.0%. ETFs took in money on 11 of 19 sessions and lost it on 8. Price rose and the ETFs bought. The move has a sponsor — that is the durable kind of rally.
Daily close · US$
ETF net flow per session · US$m
| Date | Close | ETF flow | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep | $81.5k | — | +$1.45bn |
| 19 Sep | $81.2k | — | +$1.45bn |
| 18 Sep | $80.9k | +$433m | +$1.45bn |
| 17 Sep | $76.4k | +$160m | +$1.02bn |
| 16 Sep | $76.2k | −$296m | +$862m |
| 15 Sep | $75.6k | −$450m | +$1.16bn |
| 14 Sep | $78.2k | +$160m | +$1.61bn |
| 13 Sep | $76.8k | — | +$1.45bn |
| 12 Sep | $77.3k | — | +$1.45bn |
| 11 Sep | $77.2k | −$13m | +$1.45bn |
| 10 Sep | $76.6k | −$283m | +$1.46bn |
| 9 Sep | $78.3k | −$120m | +$1.74bn |
| 8 Sep | $78.4k | −$47m | +$1.86bn |
| 7 Sep | $79.1k | — | +$1.91bn |
| 6 Sep | $80.4k | — | +$1.91bn |
| 5 Sep | $79.8k | — | +$1.91bn |
| 4 Sep | $79.7k | +$175m | +$1.91bn |
| 3 Sep | $81.3k | +$731m | +$1.74bn |
| 2 Sep | $77.3k | +$101m | +$1.01bn |
| 1 Sep | $77.4k | −$237m | +$905m |
| 31 Aug | $78.5k | +$217m | +$1.14bn |
| 30 Aug | $77.7k | — | +$925m |
| 29 Aug | $78.2k | — | +$925m |
| 28 Aug | $77.8k | −$202m | +$925m |
| 27 Aug | $80.3k | +$242m | +$1.13bn |
| 26 Aug | $79.0k | +$232m | +$884m |
| 25 Aug | $78.6k | +$314m | +$652m |
| 24 Aug | $79.0k | +$338m | +$338m |
| 23 Aug | $77.8k | — | +$0m |
| 22 Aug | $77.1k | — | +$0m |
Price
+4.1%
Worst dip inside the window −7.0%.
ETF net flow
+$1.45bn
11 inflow days, 8 outflow days.
Biggest days
+$731m
In on 3 Sep. Largest out −$450m on 15 Sep.
Flow vs price
0.78
Same-day correlation. Flow and price moved together — ETFs were driving.
| Week | Price | ETF flow |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug – 30 Aug | −0.1% | +$925m |
| 31 Aug – 6 Sep | +3.5% | +$987m |
| 7 Sep – 13 Sep | −4.4% | −$463m |
| 14 Sep – 21 Sep | +6.1% | +$6m |
Now · as of 21 Sep 2026
Spot is above both its 50- and 200-day averages — the trend is up, sitting in the upper third of its 90-day range ($58.6k–$81.5k) and −35% from the $124.8k high of 6 Oct 2025. The last 21 ETF sessions netted +$2.37bn — steady institutional buying (stronger than 58% of all such windows). Volatility is ordinary for the past year.
Trend
Uptrend
+11.4% vs 50-day ($73.2k), +15.7% vs 200-day ($70.5k).
90-day range
100%
−35% from the all-time high.
Volatility
Ordinary
37% annualised over 30 days.
ETF flow · 21 sessions
+$2.37bn
Inflow. Ranked against every window since launch.
Next 30 days · to 21 Oct 2026
Direction is close to a coin flip (55% of paths finish above today). Four in five land between $72.2k and $95.5k; the middle path is $82.4k (+1.1%). A move of 15% or more is a 13% chance to the upside and 5% to the downside. ETF flows add no directional edge at this horizon.
| Date | 1 in 10 below | Lower quartile | Middle | Upper quartile | 1 in 10 above |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep | $77.5k | $79.5k | $81.7k | $84.1k | $87.1k |
| 5 Oct | $75.3k | $78.6k | $82.0k | $85.8k | $90.3k |
| 12 Oct | $74.0k | $77.9k | $82.2k | $87.3k | $92.9k |
| 19 Oct | $72.9k | $77.2k | $82.4k | $88.5k | $95.0k |
| 21 Oct | $72.2k | $76.9k | $82.4k | $89.0k | $95.5k |
Finishes higher
55%
Share of simulated paths above today's price.
+15% or more
13%
Ends above $93.8k.
−15% or worse
5%
Ends below $69.3k.
All-time high
$124.8k · +53.0% away
0%
30-day low
$75.6k · −7.3% away
35%
50-day average
$73.2k · −10.2% away
22%
200-day average
$70.5k · −13.5% away
12%
90-day low
$58.6k · −28.2% away
0%
A touch counts any daily close through the level, even if price comes back.
| Median move | Finished higher | |
|---|---|---|
| Flow like today | +3.2% | 60% |
| Every window | +1.4% | 54% |
Net flow over the last 21 sessions sits in the middling flows (middle fifth) of every 21-session stretch since the ETFs launched. From readings like this, the next 30 days had a median of +3.2% and finished higher 60% of the time, against +1.4% and 54% for every window (126 overlapping sessions, roughly 6 independent episodes). Not different enough from the average window to lean on.
Has this cone been right before? Rebuilt at 36 past dates using only the data available then, the realised 30-day move landed inside the 80% band 75% of the time and inside the 50% band 56%. The cone has been honest: about as wide as it needed to be.
Next quarter · Q4 2026, to 31 Dec 2026
Direction is tilted higher (59% of paths finish above today). Four in five land between $64.9k and $115.2k; the middle path is $85.9k (+5.3%). A move of 25% or more is a 23% chance to the upside and 6% to the downside. ETF flows add no directional edge at this horizon.
| Date | 1 in 10 below | Lower quartile | Middle | Upper quartile | 1 in 10 above |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep | $77.5k | $79.5k | $81.7k | $84.1k | $87.1k |
| 5 Oct | $75.3k | $78.6k | $82.0k | $85.8k | $90.3k |
| 12 Oct | $74.0k | $77.9k | $82.2k | $87.3k | $92.9k |
| 19 Oct | $72.9k | $77.2k | $82.4k | $88.5k | $95.0k |
| 21 Oct | $72.2k | $76.9k | $82.4k | $89.0k | $95.5k |
| 26 Oct | $71.4k | $76.8k | $82.8k | $89.6k | $97.0k |
| 2 Nov | $70.7k | $76.2k | $82.9k | $90.8k | $99.2k |
| 9 Nov | $69.6k | $75.8k | $83.1k | $92.0k | $101.8k |
| 16 Nov | $68.8k | $75.5k | $83.5k | $93.2k | $104.1k |
| 23 Nov | $67.7k | $74.9k | $83.9k | $94.7k | $105.8k |
| 30 Nov | $67.1k | $74.6k | $84.4k | $96.0k | $107.9k |
| 7 Dec | $66.2k | $74.1k | $84.7k | $96.9k | $109.3k |
| 14 Dec | $65.5k | $74.0k | $85.2k | $98.1k | $111.0k |
| 21 Dec | $65.1k | $73.6k | $85.4k | $98.9k | $112.8k |
| 28 Dec | $64.8k | $73.9k | $85.8k | $99.8k | $114.8k |
| 31 Dec | $64.9k | $73.6k | $85.9k | $100.1k | $115.2k |
Finishes higher
59%
Share of simulated paths above today's price.
+25% or more
23%
Ends above $101.9k.
−25% or worse
6%
Ends below $61.2k.
Bitcoin has finished Q4 higher in 7 of 12 years, with a median of +27% and a range from −44% to +226%. 12 observations is a tendency, not a law — the range matters more than the median.
| Month | Median | Up years |
|---|---|---|
| October | +12.9% | 9 of 12 |
| November | +7.6% | 7 of 12 |
| December | −3.2% | 5 of 12 |
| Year | Quarter return |
|---|---|
| 2025 | −23.3% |
| 2024 | +47.5% |
| 2023 | +56.7% |
| 2022 | −14.8% |
| 2021 | +5.7% |
| 2020 | +168.9% |
| 2019 | −13.3% |
| 2018 | −43.5% |
| 2017 | +226.3% |
| 2016 | +58.1% |
| 2015 | +82.4% |
| 2014 | −17.3% |
25 Sep
in 4d
Quarterly options expiry Options
The largest open interest of the quarter rolls off. Price is often pinned into it and freer to trend after.
30 Sep
in 9d
Quarter end Calendar
Portfolio rebalancing. After a strong quarter allocators trim; after a weak one they top up.
Beyond 30 days
28 Oct
in 37d
Fed decision Fed
Rate decision and press conference. Flows often pause into it and resume after.
30 Oct
in 39d
Monthly options expiry Options
Monthly crypto options expire. Dealer hedging can pin price into the date.
16 Nov
in 56d
13F deadline Filing
Institutions disclose quarter-end ETF holdings. It shows who owns the ETFs — late, but it sets the narrative.
27 Nov
in 67d
Monthly options expiry Options
Monthly crypto options expire. Dealer hedging can pin price into the date.
9 Dec
in 79d
Fed decision + projections Fed
Rate decision with the dot plot. The projections reprice the path of liquidity, which is what ETF allocators trade.
25 Dec
in 95d
Quarterly options expiry Options
The largest open interest of the quarter rolls off. Price is often pinned into it and freer to trend after.
31 Dec
in 101d
Quarter end Calendar
Portfolio rebalancing. After a strong quarter allocators trim; after a weak one they top up.
All-time high
$124.8k · +53.0% away
9%
30-day low
$75.6k · −7.3% away
61%
50-day average
$73.2k · −10.2% away
50%
200-day average
$70.5k · −13.5% away
39%
90-day low
$58.6k · −28.2% away
9%
A touch counts any daily close through the level, even if price comes back.
| Median move | Finished higher | |
|---|---|---|
| Flow like today | −7.5% | 35% |
| Every window | −2.8% | 46% |
Net flow over the last 21 sessions sits in the middling flows (middle fifth) of every 21-session stretch since the ETFs launched. From readings like this, the next 101 days had a median of −7.5% and finished higher 35% of the time, against −2.8% and 46% for every window (117 overlapping sessions, roughly 2 independent episodes). Too few independent episodes to lean on — treat it as colour, not signal.
Has this cone been right before? Rebuilt at 36 past dates using only the data available then, the realised 101-day move landed inside the 80% band 81% of the time and inside the 50% band 44%. The cone has been honest: about as wide as it needed to be.
How the forecast is made
4,000 price paths are drawn from Bitcoin's own last 1,460 days, in 10-day blocks so that volatile stretches stay clustered the way they do in life. Each path starts at today's volatility (37% annualised) and fades toward the long-run level (47%). Historical drift is halved to +20% a year, because past bull-market returns are a poor promise.
The cone is a range of outcomes, not a call. It carries no view on direction — ETF flows are tested separately and shown beside it, and only lean when enough independent episodes agree. Each cone is graded against its own past performance above. None of this is a trade ticket.